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is the current equity selloff about oil?
I’m postponing my 2015 Strategy summary/conclusion on Monday. The price of oil has been steadily declining since June It’s now below $60 a barrel, after having moved sideways at around $100 from...
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I’ve dusted off my Current Market Tactics page
Current Market Tactics: why stocks are selling off, and what to do now
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crude oil
starting with the basics… A barrel of crude oil is a container filled with flammable liquid that weighs about 300 lb and occupies a volume of about 5.6 cubic feet. A cube measuring a yard on each side...
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crude oil (ii): what’s happening now
lower oil price+=less new drilling Sharply lower oil prices have two main effects on the planning of new drilling by oil exploration companies: –the more obvious is that they are only getting about...
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oil: how the price dynamic has changed
Value Line vs. O”Neil My first Wall Street job was with Value Line, a firm which has seen better days but which dominated the retail market for investment information in the 1970s – 1980s. It still...
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effects of lower oil prices
At $50 a barrel oil vs. $100 a barrel: 1. High-cost alternatives hydrocarbon like liquefied natural gas (LNG), where projects require billions of dollars in spending on infrastructure–cryogenics at...
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sorting out oil-related stocks
The very large drop in oil prices over the past eight months has had negative effects on all oil-related firms. The amount of suffering varies considerably, however, based on how a given firm is...
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which is the better question: where is the oil price floor or where is the...
I read sports for a radio station for the blind each Thursday. I was listening, as usual, to Bloomberg radio in my car while on the way. I caught the tail end of a conversation in which a guest was...
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off to a very slow start today…
…so I’m not going to write very much. During the first world oil shock (1971 – 74), the US was unique among developed countries in enacting a byzantine system of oil price and distribution controls...
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thinking about the oil price
I’ve been reading lately that many US oil companies are continuing to drill for shale oil, despite the fall in the price of crude. However, while they are finishing drilling holes in the ground,...
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more on oil
As I was thinking about this post, I knew that oil is a complicated subject and that there’s a risk of getting lost in the details. So I decided to sketch out the structure of the post carefully on...
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$20 a barrel oil?
Last week, Goldman Sachs released a research report to clients in which it observed that if the world oil market develops in a less favorable way (to oil producers) than it currently anticipates, the...
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nearing crunch time for the oil price
recap By allowing/encouraging the oil price to stay over $100 a barrel, OPEC unwittingly created a pricing umbrella that spawned a significant new, relatively high cost, shale oil industry in the US...
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Shaping a Portfolio for 2016: a data dump on oil
This time last year I was embarrassingly silent about oil, which I considered to have poor prospects–and still do. So naturally I’m going to go overboard in the other direction now. If there’s a...
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Shaping a Portfolio for 2016: petrodollars
Petrodollars is the term coined in the 1970s to describe the money flow from oil consuming nations to oil producers–meaning by and large OPEC–during a decade when the crude oil price skyrocketed from...
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oil: confusing correlation and causation
This is about the current state of the oil market. The fact that two things occur together (correlation) does not always mean that one causes the other. For example, every morning the rooster crows and...
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the Obama $10 per barrel oil tax
Last week, the Obama administration said its upcoming budget will contain a proposal for a $1o a barrel tax on oil. Its purpose would be to fund infrastructure, as well as to use price as a tool to...
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which recovers first, crude oil or base metals?
I’m in the oil first camp. (My private opinion is that it could take a decade or more for base metal prices to perk up. Whether that turns out to be true or not is less important to a long-only...
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oil at $50 a barrel
It has been a wild ride. Crude began to run up in early 2007. It went from $50 a barrel to a peak of around $150 in mid-2008. Recession caused the price to plunge to $30 a barrel late that year....
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thinking about Big Oil
I’m starting to feel I should be interested in oil stocks again. That’s mostly because I think that we’ve already seen the lows for the oil price earlier in this year, when quotes were flirting with...
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